At the abandoned Iranian Embassy in Damascus, Syria, Iran’s fall from powerhouse to powerless is most evident. For years, the embassy, ringed with concrete blocks, fences, and an array of security cameras, served as the cockpit of Tehran’s “Axis of Resistance.”
The regional strategy built and sustained allied militias from Lebanon to Yemen to counter Israeli and American influence and serve as Iran’s first line of defense.
Why We Wrote This
First Hamas in Gaza, then Hezbollah in Lebanon, now the Assad regime in Syria. With key components of Iran’s “Axis of Resistance” diminished or defeated, what is left of Tehran’s expensive strategy for regional dominance?
But when Syrian rebels mounted a lightning 11-day offensive to topple the regime of Bashar al-Assad, neither Iran nor its powerful ally Russia could prevent the collapse. Overnight, Iran’s costly, yearslong investment in Syria disappeared.
“We hate them a lot, to the first degree,” says a rebel fighter guarding the embassy. “They were here to kill the Syrian people,” he says. “There is no way of reconciliation with Iran.”
In Tehran, Iranians are still absorbing that the deterrent power of the axis “has been substantially reduced,” says Nasser Hadian, a professor of political science at Tehran University, now retired. “There is a sense of shock and confusion in Iran, and discussion of how and why [Syria’s fall] happened,” he says. “There is not yet a clear vision of what we should do now.”
At the abandoned Iranian Embassy in Damascus, Iran’s fall here from powerhouse to powerless is most evident.
For years, the embassy, ringed with rows of concrete blocks, sharp-tined fences, and an array of security cameras, served as the cockpit of Tehran’s “Axis of Resistance.”
The regional strategy built and sustained allied militias from Lebanon to Yemen to counter Israeli and American influence in the region and serve as Iran’s own first line of defense.
Why We Wrote This
First Hamas in Gaza, then Hezbollah in Lebanon, now the Assad regime in Syria. With key components of Iran’s “Axis of Resistance” diminished or defeated, what is left of Tehran’s expensive strategy for regional dominance?
Owing to the work done in this building – with its royal blue, gold, and teal tiles designed to resemble the finest ancient mosques in Iran – Tehran could claim regional superpower status.
But when Syrian rebels mounted a lightning 11-day offensive this month to topple the regime of Bashar al-Assad, neither Iran nor its powerful ally Russia could prevent the collapse.
Overnight, Iran’s costly, yearslong investment in Syria disappeared.
Today a handful of rebel fighters from the Islamist Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) militia stand guard at the embassy, where the bulletproof glass has been tested by rifle rounds.
Warding off the evening cold with a fire, the guards give voice to widespread anti-Iran sentiment in Syria, as more and more crimes of the regime – for so long propped up by Iran – are revealed each day.
Scott Peterson/Getty Images/The Christian Science Monitor
“We hate them a lot, to the first degree. … They made us suffer a lot,” says one guard, wearing a black scarf and a look of confidence born of military victory.
“They were here to kill the Syrian people,” he says, noting Iran’s key role in crushing a popular anti-Assad uprising that began in 2011, and eventually morphed into a civil war with foreign powers backing disparate armed groups.
“They were strong when Assad was here. The minute Assad was out, they were no longer strong,” says the HTS fighter, who did not give his name. “No, never. There is no way of reconciliation with Iran.”
An axis in decline
The fall of the Assad dynasty after more than half a century in power is the latest major blow to Iran and its alliance.
Across the region, Iran is reeling from sweeping changes triggered by axis member Hamas’ surprise Oct. 7, 2023, attack on Israel, and Israel’s ongoing response, which has gravely weakened Hamas and leveled the Gaza Strip.
In Lebanon, thousands of Israeli airstrikes have wiped out the leadership of Hezbollah, the crown jewel of the axis, and severely damaged the Shiite militia’s military capacity. Syria was the indispensable node through which Iran supplied Hezbollah with missiles, weaponry, and cash. For now, that path is closed, Hezbollah acknowledges.
On Thursday, Israel responded to recent missile and drone strikes on Tel Aviv by Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen with another round of airstrikes involving dozens of Israeli jet fighters, 2,000 kilometers (1,200 miles) away.
In Tehran, Iranians are still absorbing that the deterrent power of the axis “has been substantially reduced,” says Nasser Hadian, a professor of political science at Tehran University, now retired.
“Still there is a sense of shock and confusion in Iran, and discussion of how and why [Syria’s fall] happened. Thus there is not yet a clear vision of what we should do now,” he says.
Scott Peterson/Getty Images/The Christian Science Monitor
“The Israelis have used this chaos to advance their interests.”
Gone are the days when Iranian hard-liners and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu alike would speak of Tehran controlling decisions in four other regional capitals: Sanaa, Baghdad, Damascus, and Beirut.
In Iran, the strongest public criticism has come from hard-liners who had carried out the axis strategy, which included recruiting Shiite militiamen from Afghanistan and Pakistan to fight in Syria’s civil war, and bolstering Shiite militias in Iraq and Yemen.
“Assad’s departure was definitely a blow to the resistance front, and this is an undeniable reality,” a former Revolutionary Guard intelligence chief, Hossein Taeb, said Tuesday. “The stakes have gone higher and resistance must seek new avenues.”
In a speech Tuesday, Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, said the “assumption” by the United States and Israel “that resistance has come to an end is erroneous.”
“It was very dangerous for boys”
In Syria, foreign fighters marshaled by Iran – especially when that battle took on the Islamic State in the mid-2010s – were often portrayed as “defenders of the shrine,” an ornate gold-domed mosque complex south of Damascus that Shiites believe houses the remains of Sayyida Zaynab, granddaughter of the Prophet Muhammad.
Thousands of Iranian Shiite pilgrims came to the shrine each year.
But residents of Sayyida Zaynab – a poor district – say Hezbollah forced Sunnis as well as Shiites to fight with the axis.
“Hezbollah took many boys in this area, and took them to any front line in Syria. … It was very dangerous for boys,” says Ahmad al-Fayad. Two of his sons were arrested by the regime during a sweep in 2013, charged as “terrorists,” and disappeared, he says.
Scott Peterson/Getty Images/The Christian Science Monitor
He was not surprised to hear that a torn portrait of Ayatollah Khamenei was stomped on at a pro-HTS celebration down the road, which attracted scores of local Shiites.
“We are very happy about it,” says Mr. Fayad. “As a result of the previous injustice carried out by the [Iran-backed] militias, you can watch Khamenei’s pictures being torn.”
That injustice continues, as far as residents are concerned, in the form of at least one weapons depot, hidden in a residential compound in Sayyida Zaynab that locals say was once an Iran-Hezbollah base.
Axis fighters removed most traces of their affiliation, leaving piles of finely shredded documents and a single reference sheet listing all Iran-related axis locations in the Damascus area.
But room after room is filled with boxes of .50 caliber machine gun rounds, rocket-propelled grenades, and larger ordnance.
“We are afraid of this. … It’s very dangerous for our people,” says one local man, as the sound of Israeli aircraft overhead blends with the laughter of children playing nearby, as if at a school. Israel has mounted 500 airstrikes in Syria to prevent the fallen regime’s military capability from being used by the new rebel rulers.
Downturn
Iran’s fortunes in Syria began to wane last April, when Israel struck a building adjacent to the Iranian Embassy, killing many of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard’s senior commanders in Syria. That strike prompted an unprecedented missile and drone attack on Israel from Iranian soil.
Damascus residents near the site of the Israeli strike say cars with Lebanese license plates removed all documents and other sensitive materials, and the rubble of the entire five-story building was gone within three days.
“We don’t want them in our neighborhood – they are not welcome at all,” says one man called Hashem, who witnessed the strike.
The Iranians “are very strong; we were afraid of them,” says Abed, a guard at a nearby building.
Could Iran come back?
“Why?” asks Abed, bemused at the question. “If they are going to come back and be peaceful, not hurting people, or causing destruction or [Israeli] airstrikes, maybe it is not a problem.”
