In recent days, New York City’s Mayor Eric Adams has escaped a possible ouster by the governor over corruption allegations. But a larger reality may be emerging in the Big Apple: The city is fast preparing to move on without him.
A primary election is on the horizon, and Mr. Adams’ low popularity among voters and Democratic kingmakers makes him a long shot for the job, if he even runs.
The hurdles are sizeable. In addition to the federal bribery and corruption charges, which he denies and which the U.S. Attorney’s office has moved to dismiss amid pressure from President Donald Trump, Mayor Adams also faces a Democratic governor and high-ranking officials who want him gone, the resignation of half of his deputy mayors, and tanking approval.
Why We Wrote This
In New York City, an active mayoral primary race is getting underway. And polls suggest it’s a wide-open race, even though current Mayor Eric Adams hasn’t been ousted or tried on pending corruption charges.
Gov. Kathy Hochul announced last week that she would not use her authority to remove Mayor Adams from office but would seek to impose new guardrails on his administration.
But what may prove most damaging in this true-blue city is the consensus that Mayor Adams has cozied up to the locally reviled Republican president in exchange for freedom from prosecution.
A former Republican, Mayor Adams says he won’t resign or run on the GOP ticket despite his latest tack toward President Trump on immigration. The mayor doubled down on blocking services for undocumented migrants in New York after Mr. Trump’s new Justice Department moved to dismiss the charges against him.
As for mayoral contenders, the leaderboard is murky. Out front in an early poll is Andrew Cuomo. The pugnacious, three-term former governor won early nationwide acclaim for his COVID-19 response, but he resigned in 2021 amid sexual harassment allegations.
Looking to make a comeback, Mr. Cuomo is racking up endorsements, although he hasn’t officially announced that he is running. He leads the embattled mayor 33% to 10% in polling of Democratic voters.
“More than ever, NYC needs effective, fearless leadership to defend our city and these critical values,’’ wrote Democratic fundraiser Charles Myers in a note to potential Cuomo supporters last week, according to Politico.
Mr. Cuomo’s last turn in public office ended in disgrace. In addition to sexual harassment allegations, he also faced scrutiny over his decision to move recovering COVID-19 patients to nursing homes, his alleged improper reporting of death toll numbers, and his use of government resources to help write a book. While one accuser dropped her sexual harassment suit against him, two other suits continue. He could announce as early as this weekend, according to the New York Times.
Still, Democratic insiders say uneasiness about Mayor Adams and the sharp-elbowed Mr. Cuomo is behind efforts to draft another mayoral candidate: City Council Speaker Adrienne Adams (no relation to the mayor). She has called on Mayor Adams to resign but has remained silent on her potential candidacy.
“Four months out from the primary, people who are otherwise very knowledgeable about New York City government and politics have no idea what the final field will look like, let alone who will win,” says Jon Paul Lupo, an unaffiliated Democratic consultant.
Joining the fray are several other current and former city officials, state lawmakers, and an outsider. Few are well known.
What’s in a name?
Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said Mr. Cuomo’s high name recognition gives him an early advantage. “But the race is fluid,’’ he says.
Tracking behind Mr. Cuomo and Mayor Adams is former city comptroller and Manhattan Borough President Scott Stringer, whose 2021 mayoral bid was derailed by harassment allegations that he denies. Once known as a progressive, Mr. Stringer is shifting toward the center, emphasizing crime, cost of living, and education. Eight percent of Emerson College poll respondents said he would be their top choice.
It’s a three-way tie for fourth place. State Senator Jessica Ramos from Queens is campaigning for affordable housing, improved public transit, universal daycare, and worker rights. Brooklyn State Senator Zellnor Myrie wants affordable housing and free universal after-school programs. City Comptroller Brad Lander’s signature issues are the mental health crisis and street homelessness. Each has 6% support.
The rest – Whitney Tilson, a former portfolio manager now campaigning against corruption; Michael Blake, a former Bronx assembly member and aide to President Obama who wants improved safety and reduced pollution; and Zohran Mamdani, a pro-Palestinian state assembly member who calls for lowering the cost of living – are polling in the low single digits.
Whoever wins the primary in this heavily Democratic city is likely to become mayor.
New York City voter concerns
A January poll by the conservative Manhattan Institute found that 66% of respondents believe the city is heading in the wrong direction. Meanwhile, various polls show voters citing crime and affordable housing as their top concerns, followed by the economy and immigration.
Despite Mayor Adams’s political and legal troubles – he’s been charged with long-running conspiracy, wire fraud, soliciting illegal foreign campaign contributions from foreign nationals, and bribery – he could still seek reelection. It would be a battle. He’s more unpopular than President Trump among local voters. Fifty-eight percent view Mr. Adams unfavorably, compared with 53% for Mr. Trump and 37% for Mr. Cuomo, according to the Emerson poll.
Lifelong Manhattan resident and independent voter Irina Langer echoes many residents in saying just about anyone would be better than Mr. Adams. She faults him for high costs, unclean streets, and other quality-of-life issues like broken subway escalators.
While Mr. Cuomo has a commanding lead, the four months until the June 24th ranked-choice primary are eons in a race like this. Businessman Andrew Yang led at this same point in the last mayoral election cycle – only to finish fourth.
“No campaign has been fully engaged yet. No one is advertising on TV; no one is spending real money on digital, people’s mailboxes or debates,” says Alex Navarro-McKay, a Democratic consultant supporting Mr. Lander.
Last week, Mr. Cuomo reposted an endorsement from former New York State Comptroller H. Carl McCall on the social platform X, who urged his former opponent to run. “More than anyone else, Andrew is the leader we need and the leader we deserve,’’ Mr. McCall wrote. “Our situation today is truly unique, and the risks of ignoring it will elevate chaos over the common good.”
Mr. Cuomo called Mr. McCall’s sentiments “humbling and deeply meaningful.”
Looking for a comeback
Candidates have until April to file with the city Board of Elections, though most move sooner to raise money and collect signatures needed to appear on the ballot.
Mr. Cuomo, whose late father Mario was also a three-term New York governor, has spent decades in politics. He served as President Clinton’s Secretary of Housing and Urban Development from 1997 to 2001, New York’s attorney general from 2007 to 2010, and governor from 2011 until resigning almost four years ago amid sexual harassment claims that he denies.
“He wants to make a comeback, and he’s only got one shot,” says a Democratic consultant who asked not to be named. “The decision is less ‘Do I run?’ than ‘Do I run for mayor [this year] or governor next year?’”
The mayor’s job in New York City is a high-profile position that often garners national attention. Not surprisingly, at least four of the city’s mayors – John Lindsay, Michael Bloomberg, Bill de Blasio, and Rudy Giuliani – have tried to make the transition from Gracie Mansion to the White House. None was successful.
Higher office has proven an elusive quest for former Empire State governors as well.
The last one to be sent to Washington was Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1932.
