03/14/2024 Myanmar (International Christian Concern) — Even as the military regime ruling Myanmar continues to show signs of collapse across the country, the pariah government’s neighbors are showing signs of softening resistance to their illegitimate rule. This comes even as small ethnic militias have racked up impressive battlefield victories in recent months against an opponent with far superior arms.
Earlier this year, at the end of January, the regional Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) invited a representative of the Tatmadaw, as the Burmese military is known locally. ASEAN has excluded Tatmadaw representatives since the 2021 coup.
China continues to offer strategic support and assistance, a continuation of a decades-long trade in arms and goods, including drugs. Laos, the current occupant of the rotating ASEAN chairmanship, has increased its diplomatic interactions with the Tatmadaw, sending a special envoy to visit in January.
Thailand, which shares a long border with Myanmar, began work to open a humanitarian corridor earlier this month. The move, while aimed at addressing a real humanitarian crisis in Myanmar, has been widely criticized for the fact that the plan involves the Tatmadaw distributing the aid. This allows them to weaponize the critical deliveries of food and supplies, as they have in the past, and does little to help the country’s neediest populations—the ones maintaining the struggle for freedom and democracy in the face of incessant Tatmadaw aggression.
India, Myanmar’s neighbor to the west, has been criticized in recent weeks for forcing thousands of Burmese refugees back across the border into Chin State, where the Christian-majority population faces continued violence from the military. These returns are in violation of international prohibitions on refoulment, the practice of forcibly returning refugees to areas where they face continued threats of persecution.
Experts believe that the Tatmadaw is atrophying rapidly, with as few as 150,000 personnel remaining after the loss of about 21,000 through casualties or desertions since the 2021 coup. This number is significantly smaller than previous estimates of 300,000-400,000 and calls into question the junta’s ability to sustain its nationwide military campaign.
Burma’s military government announced in February that it would begin national conscription. The draft applies to all men aged 18-35 and all women aged 18-27, according to an official announcement, and can extend for up to five years.
Earlier reports from the Special Advisory Council for Myanmar suggest that anti-junta militias’ gains have reduced the area under solid Tatmadaw control to as little as 17%.
Though Myanmar’s population is about 87% Buddhist, pockets of minority religious communities exist throughout the country, including in Kayeh State, where nearly 46% of the population identifies as Christian. On Myanmar’s western border with India, Chin State is about 85% Christian, while Rakhine State is home to a significant population of Rohingya people, most of whom are Muslim.
Representing an extremist interpretation of Buddhism, the Tatmadaw has long persecuted these ethnic and religious minorities with severe campaigns of violence and intimidation.
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