America fries, boils, and consumes eggs at a rapid rate – more than 23 cartons’ worth per person per year. Last month, the federal government proposed officially labeling eggs as healthy, under new guidelines.
However, one of agriculture’s most potent biological threats, a virulent strain of avian influenza, has infiltrated henhouses over the past three years, roiling the $40 billion industry. Now it’s getting even worse. Surging prices, already setting records at the wholesale level, are heading for the grocery store.
Why We Wrote This
Egg prices have reached record highs, as egg farmers look for ways to curb the annual bird flu outbreak. Stricter protocols and vaccines could help, but the industry is still seeking a solution.
Once compromised flocks are eliminated, farmers have to buy new chicks and raise them for roughly five months before they start laying. And while vaccines are one strategy to address the issue, no vaccine has yet emerged that perfectly matches the current virulent strain.
“We are in the thick of it,” says Karyn Rispoli, a managing editor at Urner Barry, a market research firm, “and clearly losing the battle.”
America fries, boils, and consumes eggs at a rapid rate – more than 23 cartons’ worth per person per year. Last month, the federal government proposed officially labeling eggs as healthy, under new guidelines.
However, one of agriculture’s most potent biological threats, a virulent strain of avian influenza, has infiltrated henhouses over the past three years, roiling the $40 billion industry. Now it’s getting even worse. Surging prices, already setting records at the wholesale level, are heading for the grocery store. What’s the problem?
With no known antidote, farmers have had no choice but to kill their entire flock once the virus is detected. In December alone, more than 4% of the nation’s egg-laying hens were culled or died because of the virus, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA). Fewer hens mean fewer eggs. Prices have surged.
Why We Wrote This
Egg prices have reached record highs, as egg farmers look for ways to curb the annual bird flu outbreak. Stricter protocols and vaccines could help, but the industry is still seeking a solution.
How severe is the shortage?
It varies regionally. Nearly half the hen losses in December occurred because of outbreaks in five states: California, North Carolina, Ohio, Missouri, and Indiana. That is causing localized shortages. In some places, grocers are limiting the number of cartons customers can buy. Others are putting up signs warning they may temporarily run out of stock.
What’s the impact on prices?
In December, wholesale and retail prices reached record highs. Egg prices typically rise during the fourth quarter, the year’s most substantial demand period, because of increased baking around the holidays. But this time, prices have continued to rise in the new year. In the important Midwest market, wholesale egg prices soared to a record $6.95 a carton Tuesday, according to Expana, a food price-tracking firm based in New Jersey. That’s far beyond the previous high of $5.46 set in 2022.
What about retail prices?
There’s a lag before those wholesale price hikes show up in the grocery store, says Karyn Rispoli, a managing editor at Expana. And many grocers sell eggs below cost to lure customers to their stores. Last week, for example, they were buying large white eggs for an average of $6.10 a dozen while some were advertising them for sale at an average of $2.24, according to the USDA. The pressure to raise retail prices will mount if wholesale prices continue to climb as expected.
When will the situation ease?
Not anytime soon, analysts say. Once compromised flocks are eliminated, farmers have to buy new chicks and raise them for roughly five months before they start laying. Chicks for sale are also scarce due to the rise in demand from the ravages of the virus. That’s adding more months to the rebuilding process.
What’s being done to fight the virus?
The USDA has instituted stricter procedures for commercial operators to keep the virus from spreading from farm to farm through shared equipment and labor. And it is helping farmers pay to institute such biosafety measures. Yet the virus continues to spread, often through wild migratory birds. These birds can invade commercial buildings that often house caged chickens and endanger operations for free-range chickens. Last year, the USDA confirmed the virus had spread to a dairy operation and so has instituted a milk-testing strategy to protect the dairy industry. These infections represent a low risk to human health and the dairy industry generally, the USDA says. That’s because dairy cows usually recover from the virus. But it can wipe out a flock of chickens in just days.
Are vaccines a solution?
Perhaps. But there are challenges: one technical, one economic. No vaccine has yet emerged that perfectly matches the current virulent strain, according to the USDA. For vaccines to have a significant impact, all domestic poultry would have to be vaccinated, including broiler chickens, which are raised for meat. Broilers represent a multibillion-dollar export market, which could shut down if the chickens are vaccinated for the virus. Trading partners often won’t buy vaccinated chickens for fear of importing an infected chicken. Researchers say that can happen because vaccines don’t eliminate infection; they merely boost resistance and hide the traditional signs that suggest infection.
That leaves biosafety as the nation’s primary defense against one of American agriculture’s biggest challenges in years. “We are in the thick of it,” says Ms. Rispoli, “and clearly losing the battle.”
