8/1/2024 Myanmar (International Christian Concern) — Speaking to the National Defense and Security Council this week in the capital city of Naypyitaw, junta leader Min Aung Hlaing announced another extension of the country’s state of emergency. Since seizing power in February 2021, Min Aung Hlaing has repeatedly postponed democratic elections by extending the emergency declaration.
Meanwhile, reports from the country’s border with China suggest that rebels have taken the important capital city of Lashio in northern Shan State. Junta leaders deny that the city has fallen to rebels, but its command center in the area recently fell to advancing rebels. The deputy commander of the Northeastern Command, Brigadier General Tin Tun Aung, was killed in a rocket attack near Lashio this week.
In the Council meeting, Min Aung Hlaing reportedly explained that elections are currently impossible given the state of unrest in the country. He blamed “terrorist” attacks for the violence, a reference to the many pro-democracy and ethnic rebel groups waging war on the junta across the country. Referencing a possible election in 2025, Min Aung Hlaing said that a national census was necessary before an election could be held.
Analysts agree that the Tatmadaw could not conduct an election today given its tenuous control of the country. Recent reports suggest that anti-junta militias have gained significant ground in recent months, reducing the area under solid Tatmadaw control to as little as 17%, according to the Special Advisory Council for Myanmar.
The junta’s interest in democracy lacks sincerity given its history of democratic subversion. In the years since taking power, the junta has jailed, injured, or killed thousands of pro-democracy protestors and holds Aung San Suu Kyi, the last democratically elected leader of the country, under arrest.
Speaking at an interactive dialogue in May 2024, the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, Volker Türk, spoke of the dire state of human rights in Myanmar under the ruling military junta. Since taking power on February 1, 2021, the junta has killed thousands of civilians and displaced an estimated 2.3 million more.
“Myanmar is in agonizing pain,” Türk said in his statement, “and the disintegration of human rights continues at breakneck speed.” Continuing, he described junta military tactics such as beheadings, midnight bombings of homes, and other brutalities. “We are bearing witness to a country being suffocated by an illegitimate military regime.”
The junta is known to abduct children, forcing them to walk ahead of their troops through minefields. In many cases, their victims are members of ethnic and religious minority communities fighting back against the atrocities of a military that has waged a decades-long war of ethnic and religious cleansing.
Representing an extremist interpretation of Buddhism, the Burmese military has a long history of violence against the people of Myanmar, including against ethnic and religious minorities like the Muslim-majority Rohingya and Christian-majority Chin.
Responding to Türk, U.S. Ambassador Michéle Taylor joined his condemnation of the military’s violence against civilians and highlighted “the need for the international community to do more to impede its access to arms and financial resources,” a longstanding priority of the U.S. in response to the situation.
Unfortunately, the Burmese military enjoys consistent support from Russia and China, which continue to support it economically and militarily despite sweeping international sanctions.
Despite this support, experts believe that the Burmese military is atrophying rapidly, with as few as 150,000 personnel remaining after the loss of about 21,000 through casualties or desertions since the 2021 coup. This number is significantly smaller than previous estimates of 300,000-400,000 and calls into question the junta’s ability to sustain its nationwide military campaign, especially after a series of high-profile losses in recent months.
Myanmar is a patchwork mosaic of ethnic and religious groups. Though a strong majority of the population is ethnic Burman, and an even greater percentage is Buddhist, the communities that make up the remainder are well-established, well-organized, and for the most part predate the formation of the modern state by centuries.
In many cases, Myanmar’s ethnic minorities have taken on a distinct religious identity as well. About 20-30% of ethnic Karen are Christians, while other groups—such as the Chin—are over 90% Christian. This overlap of ethnic and religious identity has created a volatile situation for believers.
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