03/04/2024 Myanmar (International Christian Concern) — In a statement Sunday, the Northern Alliance of Burmese insurgent militant group announced that it had signed a China-brokered peace deal with the Tatmadaw, Burma’s military. The agreement allows cross-border trade with China to resume and, importantly, includes recognition of the rebel-controlled Kokang region by the Tatmadaw following months of serious losses at the hands of a surprisingly effective militant offensive launched in October 2023.
While the peace deal is considerable progress, “many specific implementation provisions and details [still] need to be resolved…in the next round of the negotiations,” the Northern Alliance said in a Chinese-language statement posted to its website.
The Kokang region has strong ties to China, with a 2009 census putting immigrants from China at 33% of the area’s population. Another 60% of the population are Han Chinese, an ethnic designation shared with about 90% of China’s population. Kokang is the northern part of Shan State, Burma’s largest state at nearly 25% of the country by landmass.
Though the Tatmadaw’s recognition of the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), a member of the Northern Alliance, as the legitimate ruling authority of the Kokang region is a positive development for the anti-regime movement, there is also reason for skepticism.
The MNDAA’s long history of militancy is far more closely tied to the drug trade than to the pro-democracy movement, and the agreement—negotiated and signed in China’s southern Kunming city—was likely motivated more by economic interest than a desire for a return to democracy. Under this week’s agreement, the Tatmadaw and MNDAA will share customs proceeds produced by the resumed trade in an arrangement reminiscent of the way they shared profits from trade in heroin, opium, and methamphetamines before they split in 2009.
Also, despite an MNDAA statement last year to the effect that it was committed to the Tatmadaw’s overthrow, the MNDAA has a longer history of working with the Tatmadaw than fighting against it. Shortly after its founding in 1989, the group made a peace deal with the Tatmadaw and spent the subsequent decades leading up to 2009 as a mercenary extension of the Tatmadaw.
The MNDAA has recently been embraced by the country’s pro-democracy movement, yet it remains to be seen whether it will choose to honor its newfound commitment to democracy over its old economic ties to the Tatmadaw.
Immediately to Shan State’s south, militants in Kayeh State, the country’s smallest, are also seeing significant gains against the military. There, militia advances against the Tatmadaw have even come to include some urban areas, notably Mese and Demoso townships. In late 2023, militias there launched an offensive against Tatmadaw-controlled Loikaw. In December, Radio Free Asia reported that they had been successful in taking control of at least 80% of Loikaw, though that number is constantly subject to change given fluctuating battlefield dynamics.
On Feb. 8, in Burma’s western Rakhine state, the ethnic Arakan Army seized Mrauk-U, the former capital of the Arakan kingdom, along with the towns of Minbya and Kyauktaw, according to The Diplomat. The Arakan Army has seen several high-profile victories since fighting resumed in 2023, including the downing of a helicopter and the destruction of many navy vessels.
Experts believe that the Tatmadaw is atrophying rapidly, with as few as 150,000 personnel remaining after the loss of about 21,000 through casualties or desertions since the 2021 coup. This number is significantly smaller than earlier estimates of 300,000-400,000 and calls into question the junta’s ability to sustain its nationwide military campaign.
Burma’s military government announced in February that it would begin national conscription. The draft applies to all men aged 18-35 and all women aged 18-27, according to an official announcement, and can extend for up to five years.
Earlier reports from the Special Advisory Council for Myanmar suggest that anti-junta militias’ gains have reduced the area under solid Tatmadaw control to as little as 17%.
Though Myanmar’s population is about 87% Buddhist, pockets of minority religious communities exist throughout the country, including in Kayeh State where nearly 46% of the population identifies as Christian. On Myanmar’s western border, with India, Chin State is about 85% Christian while Rakhine State is home to a significant population of Rohingya people, most of whom are Muslim.
Being an extremist interpretation of Buddhism, the Tatmadaw has long persecuted these ethnic and religious minorities with severe campaigns of violence and intimidation.
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