An insurgency by gunmen loyal to the ousted government of Bashar al-Assad and a wave of sectarian revenge killings are threatening to transform Syria from a cautious success story to the Middle East’s next crisis.
They are threatening both the country’s postwar reconstruction as well as the hard-line Islamist government’s strained ties with a skeptical West.
The violence of the last several days has laid bare challenges Syria’s new rulers had, up until last week, largely contained or met: resistance by Assad regime remnants, sectarian revenge attacks, and maintaining discipline over a patchwork of armed militant groups and hard-line foreign fighters.
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An eruption of sectarian violence involving supporters of the deposed Assad regime has left hundreds dead, calling into question whether Syria’s new rulers can maintain discipline over a patchwork of armed militant groups, including hard-line jihadis.
It is considered the worst violence in the country since the fall of Mr. Assad. It began Thursday when remnants of the deposed regime staged a series of coordinated attacks on government security personnel in the coastal regions of Latakia and Tartus, the Assadist heartland.
Residents, largely members of the Alawite religious minority that Mr. Assad and his inner circle belonged to, were the subject of revenge killings as gunmen descended on the region. It is unclear whether they were sent as reinforcements on orders from Damascus or whether they mobilized on their own accord.
“The new authorities clearly lost control of the situation,” says Julien Barnes-Dacey, director of the Middle East and North Africa program at the European Council on Foreign Relations.
The exact scale of the killings is difficult to verify. Videos circulated of what appeared to be government-aligned gunmen torturing and executing Alawite men, looting shops, and burning homes in predominantly Alawite villages. Older images of Syrian civil war violence also were circulated.
A resident of the Latakia region who gave the pseudonym Ahmed for his safety, reached by WhatsApp, says he buried his uncle and aunt Monday. He says they were “slaughtered” by jihadis and that the killing of civilians by Syrian and foreign jihadis is ongoing.
“The new Syrian administration claims that remnants of the Syrian regime are attacking it,” he says. “That’s true in some areas, but even in areas where there are no remnants, fires were lit and the most awful killings carried out by jihadists.”
The Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights put the death toll at over 1,000, including 745 civilians. The Syrian Network for Human Rights reported 148 civilians killed by Assad loyalists and 327 civilians and captured militants killed by Syrian security forces.
The government has yet to give its own toll. The Interior Ministry acknowledged that “violations” had occurred in Tartus and Latakia, but attributed them to unofficial armed groups that had entered the coastal region to defend the interim government.
The government insists the security operation only “targeted remnants of Assad’s militias and those who support them.” Ahmed al-Sharaa, Syria’s interim president and head of the hard-line Islamist Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), established two committees to investigate the violence and bring perpetrators to justice.
In an address to the nation Sunday, Mr. Sharaa said the country was battling attempts by “remnants of the former regime” to drag the country back into civil war and vowed to prosecute “anyone involved in civilian bloodshed.”
In a separate speech in a Damascus mosque, he said Syrians “must preserve national unity [and] civil peace as much as possible and, God willing, we will live together in this country.”
But it remains to be seen whether that message of unity and coexistence will trickle down to the ragtag group of fighters and rebel groups now operating under the interim government’s umbrella. Outside Damascus, security forces are typically ad hoc, local arrangements.
“Control and discipline is a major challenge for the new authorities,” says Hajer Naili of the Washington-based Center for Civilians in Conflict. “Certain armed actors are operating without concern for civilians or civilian properties. They are acting with a militia mindset.”
The violence also points to the urgency of disarming Assad loyalists while providing a pathway to transitional justice.
“What we saw happening over the last few days has a lot to do with justice – people taking justice into their own hands,” notes Ms. Naili.
The violence has also put into doubt international support for the Syrian government.
The United States and European Union have tied the lifting of sanctions on Syria, imposed on the Assad regime, to the protection of minorities and respect for human rights. Only late last month did the EU suspend sanctions on Syria’s energy and banking sectors, most crucially Syria’s central bank. The UK followed suit last week.
Yet the violence bodes ill for America lifting its own more stringent sanctions, which have, until now, kept international businesses and countries from taking part in Syria’s reconstruction and ultimately its economic recovery.
Washington has not engaged with and remains skeptical of Syria’s new rulers, who a decade ago were affiliated with Al Qaeda. Secretary of State Marco Rubio stressed that “the United States condemns the Islamist radical terrorists … that murdered people in Western Syria in recent days.”
“Syria’s authorities must hold the perpetrators of these massacres against Syria’s minority communities accountable,” he added.
Syria’s neighbors have been engaging with HTS and working to enhance the stability of post-revolution Syria. Their goal has been to prevent a replay of the Syrian civil war and the over-spilling of terrorism, drugs, and arms smuggling onto their territories.
In a show of support, the foreign ministers and army and intelligence chiefs of Jordan, Turkey, Iraq, and Lebanon met in Amman Sunday with Syria’s top diplomat and military leaders to discuss the recent violence and future cooperation.
Syria’s neighbors urged the West to remove Assad-era sanctions and agreed to support Syrian security and reject “any attempts to destabilize Syria’s security, sovereignty, and peace.”
Sources close to the meetings said they pledged to support and train the interim government’s forces and to share intelligence on ISIS and other terror groups.
“We neighboring countries are sincere in supporting Syria; Syria’s success is success for all of us,” Jordanian Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi told reporters at the end of the summit.
Said Syrian Foreign Minister Assad al-Shibani: “We were all victims of the Assad regime and its massacres. … We will not allow the repetition of the tragedies of the Syrian people.”
