The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has said that the activities of the Dangote Refinery are impacting the European fuel market, as it has reduced Nigeria’s dependence on fuel imports.
OPEC, in its Monthly Oil Market Report published on 15 January 2025, noted the influence of the Lagos-based facility on the European market.
“The ongoing operational ramp-up efforts at Nigeria’s new Dangote Refinery and its gasoline exports to the international market will likely weigh further on the European gasoline market,” the report stated.
For many years, Nigeria, Africa’s most populous nation, struggled with energy challenges, with state-owned refineries non-operational and a heavy reliance on imported petrol and diesel.
The situation worsened in 2023 when President Bola Tinubu removed fuel subsidies, causing prices to rise from ₦200 per litre to around ₦1,000 per litre, further burdening citizens.
The $20 billion refinery, owned by Africa’s leading industrialist Aliko Dangote, began operations in December 2023 with an initial output of 350,000 barrels per day and plans to reach its full capacity of 650,000 barrels per day by the end of 2025.
Despite initial regulatory challenges, the refinery now supplies refined diesel, petrol, and aviation fuel to local marketers.
OPEC noted that with Nigeria now producing significant volumes of gasoline, European markets will need to find new destinations for their surplus supply.
“Continued gasoline production in Nigeria, a country that has relied heavily on imports to meet its domestic fuel needs in the past, will most likely continue to free up gasoline volumes in international markets,” the report added.
