When the polls close here in Germany on Sunday, the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party could well be the second-largest in the federal parliament with more than 20% of the vote.
Yet its candidate for chancellor will not be seriously considered. No major party will likely ask it to join a coalition, nor for its help in passing legislation.
This is the German “firewall.” Every other major German party refuses to work with the AfD because it is widely seen as an extremist right-wing party. And all indications suggest that this firewall will hold. But Sunday’s election could mark its sternest test yet.
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Germany has built its postwar democracy specifically to repel the forces of populism now sweeping the West. That makes its elections Sunday a test of whether this bulwark can – and should – hold.
Germany’s history has given rise to a democracy uniquely tasked with resisting the populist wave sweeping the West. The government has powers to clamp down on free speech that it sees as dangerous to democracy. It can even ban parties, as it did to a communist party and an openly neo-Nazi party during the Soviet era. The AfD is under surveillance by the domestic intelligence service.
Yet the forces that are pushing Western democracies toward populism are here, too – and in some respects, even stronger. The economy is stagnant, with few prospects for a quick turnaround. Inflation is rampant, and includes the highest energy costs in Europe. And immigration is seen as out of control, punctuated by a string of violent attacks by asylum-seekers.
That makes this election something of a battleground for how far populism can spread. Germany is perhaps the West’s last and most difficult beachhead.
Is the AfD a legit alternative?
Frustrated by these features of German democracy, United States Vice President JD Vance last week pointed the finger at German politicians, saying “there is no room for firewalls.” But here in Germany, there is a sense that something much deeper is at work.
The firewall has always been a product of German voters’ desire for order and stability – a trust in the government’s competence. Its rupture would signal a fundamental breach in that core post-World War II political contract. Sunday’s elections will offer an indication of how many German voters feel driven to that extreme.
“I have lost my faith,” says Holger Rousseau, sitting at a café on Berlin’s Alexanderplatz.
He rattles off a series of strong German leaders from the past and wonders where they have gone. It seems to him that Germany’s leaders of today don’t care about the people they way they once did. “They are not there for the voters.”
“The country has lost the values that it stood for,” adds his wife, Britta.
She won’t reveal the party she supports, but she says parts of the AfD platform are good, including its get-tough stance on immigration. And she does not dismiss the fact that 20% of the population wants the AfD to be in government. She doesn’t see the danger some others do.
“The German people are clever enough not to repeat the past,” she says.
Since the end of World War II, the deep, motivating fear here has been a repeat of 1933, when the National Socialists were invited to form a government. While few experts see the AfD as a reprise of the Nazis, the party’s willingness to evoke Nazi-era slogans and to endorse virulent anti-immigrant rhetoric have so far made them untouchable.
But the Rousseaus show how that view is shifting. And even among those who are strongly against the AfD, there is an understanding of why the AfD is growing.
Mark Sappenfield/The Christian Science Monitor
“I’ve never before witnessed people being so unsure about who to vote for,” says Philipp M., a Berliner who asked that his last name not be used for privacy reasons. “There’s a sense that, no matter who you vote for, nothing will change.”
“I don’t think 20% of the people are Nazis,” he adds. “Half of that vote are probably people who are just unsatisfied.”
This trend has defined recent politics in the West, with populist parties and leaders from the U.S. to France to Britain capitalizing on a loss of faith in politics.
“The AfD has effectively positioned itself as, ‘We’re the only alternative to the politics of today,’” says Eric Langenbacher, a professor and Germany expert at Georgetown University.
The AfD matters
The actual threat presented by the AfD is open to wide interpretation. Elon Musk has been campaigning on AfD’s behalf, rejecting the idea that AfD is even right wing. The AfD remains splintered between moderate and radical wings, with both maintaining significant influence. The leader of the radical wing, Björn Höcke, has repeatedly used a phrase – “Everything for Germany” – that has been banned because of its connection to Nazi stormtroopers.
More generally, the party represents a reversal of much of what modern Germany has been built on. That is both its appeal and why the demand for the firewall endures. While Germans strongly support new immigration measures, the AfD’s rhetoric about massive deportations is seen by many as having a worryingly racial element. Its anti-European Union stance is in contrast to Germany’s defining role in building a unified Europe since World War II. And its desire to more fully embrace German history goes against deep revulsion toward the Nazi past.
“The majority of Germans still don’t feel comfortable being nationalistic,” says Hope Harrison, a history professor and Germany expert at George Washington University.
Germany’s status as a bulwark against populism will likely be determined not Sunday, but in the years to come. It’s possible that the AfD could become more mainstream, as parties like the Greens have in the past.
“A party evolves,” says Jackson Janes of the German Marshall Fund in Washington. “It’s possible that it becomes a more acceptable coalition partner.”
It’s also possible that the AfD becomes more appealing if Germany’s new government cannot come to grips with the challenges facing the country.
Last month, the man poised to become German’s next chancellor, Friedrich Merz, used AfD support to pass a motion to tighten immigration controls. The move caused a firestorm, with 56% of Germans feeling it constituted a breach of the firewall, according to a poll. The formal bill that followed failed, and Mr. Merz confirmed he would not work with the AfD in the future. But it showed that, firewall or not, the AfD matters.
Says Dr. Janes: “The people who vote for it have a voice and should be paid attention to.”
