8/8/2024 Myanmar (International Christian Concern) — After significant fighting, rebel forces in Myanmar announced this week that they had taken the town of Lashio, on the country’s border with China, from the ruling military junta. The development is the latest in a long string of victories for rebel forces, which are largely composed of ethnic and religious minorities. Lashio, in addition to being an important artery for trade between Myanmar and China, is also home to an airport and one of the military’s 14 regional headquarters.
Early reports suggest that the rebels may have captured three generals at the base, while the commander may have fled to China. Other sources have said that the deputy commander, Brigadier General Tin Tun Aung, was killed in a rocket attack near Lashio last week. The rebel fighters claim that 4,000 fighters and their families surrendered, which, if true, would make this week’s defeat the military’s worst to date.
According to The New York Times, some analysts believe that the capture of Lashio could not have happened without tacit approval from the Chinese government, indicating a potential breakdown in what has been an essential lifeline for the military junta. Russia also supports the junta, which has struggled on several fronts since a major rebel offensive in late 2023.
Last week, junta leader Min Aung Hlaing announced another extension of the country’s state of emergency. Since seizing power in February 2021, Min Aung Hlaing has repeatedly postponed democratic elections by extending the emergency declaration.
In his announcement, Min Aung Hlaing reportedly explained that elections are currently impossible given the state of unrest in the country. He blamed “terrorist” attacks for the violence, a reference to the many pro-democracy and ethnic rebel groups waging war on the junta across the country. Referencing a possible election in 2025, Min Aung Hlaing said a national census was necessary before an election could occur.
Analysts agree that the Tatmadaw could not conduct an election today, given its tenuous control of the country. Recent reports suggest that anti-junta militias have gained significant ground in recent months, reducing the area under solid Tatmadaw control to as little as 17%, according to the Special Advisory Council for Myanmar.
The junta’s interest in democracy lacks sincerity, given its history of democratic subversion. In the years since taking power, the junta has jailed, injured, or killed thousands of pro-democracy protestors and is currently holding Aung San Suu Kyi, the last democratically elected leader of the country, under arrest.
Speaking at an interactive dialogue in May 2024, the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, Volker Türk, spoke of the dire state of human rights in Myanmar under the ruling military junta. Since taking power on February 1, 2021, the junta has killed thousands of civilians and displaced an estimated 2.3 million more.
“Myanmar is in agonizing pain,” Türk said in his statement, “and the disintegration of human rights continues at breakneck speed.” Continuing, he described junta military tactics such as beheadings, midnight bombings of homes, and other brutalities. “We are bearing witness to a country being suffocated by an illegitimate military regime.”
The junta is known to abduct children, forcing them to walk ahead of their troops through minefields. In many cases, their victims are members of ethnic and religious minority communities fighting back against the atrocities of a military that has waged a decades-long war of ethnic and religious cleansing.
Representing an extremist interpretation of Buddhism, the Burmese military has a long history of violence against the people of Myanmar, including against ethnic and religious minorities like the Muslim-majority Rohingya and Christian-majority Chin.
Responding to Türk, U.S. Ambassador Michéle Taylor joined his condemnation of the military’s violence against civilians and highlighted “the need for the international community to do more to impede its access to arms and financial resources,” a longstanding priority of the U.S. in response to the situation.
Unfortunately, the Burmese military has enjoyed support from Russia and China, which have supported it economically and militarily since the coup despite sweeping international sanctions.
Despite this support, experts believe that the Burmese military is atrophying rapidly, with as few as 150,000 personnel remaining after the loss of about 21,000 through casualties or desertions since the 2021 coup. This number is significantly smaller than previous estimates of 300,000 to 400,000 and calls into question the junta’s ability to sustain its nationwide military campaign, especially after a series of high-profile losses in recent months.
Myanmar is a patchwork mosaic of ethnic and religious groups. Though a strong majority of the population is ethnic Burman, and an even greater percentage is Buddhist, the communities that make up the remainder are well-established and well-organized and, for the most part, predate the formation of the modern state by centuries.
In many cases, Myanmar’s ethnic minorities have taken on a distinct religious identity as well. About 20% to 30% of ethnic Karen are Christians, while other groups — such as the Chin — are more than 90% Christian. This overlap of ethnic and religious identity has created a volatile situation for believers.
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