1/2/2025 Myanmar (International Christian Concern) — In an informal consultation with representatives from Thailand, China, India, Laos, and Bangladesh earlier this month, junta leaders from Myanmar indicated that plans for a national election in 2025 are continuing apace.
While analysts have largely panned the planned elections as a meaningless exercise meant to whitewash the junta’s undemocratic seizure of power in 2021, some of Myanmar’s neighbors seem ready to accept the elections as legitimate.
Speaking to the media after the consultation, Thai Foreign Minister Maris Sangiampongsa touted the junta’s assurances that it would invite international election observers, conduct a census, and register parties in the leadup to the election.
Many studying the situation do not believe that the junta can follow through on these promises, even if it wanted to. The junta controls less than a third of the country’s territory, and its area of solid control is even less, estimated to be 17% or less by some analysts, making an accurate census impossible.
According to the Assistance Association for Political Prisoners, the junta has arrested 28,051 citizens since the 2021 coup, many for participating in the country’s pro-democracy movement. More than 21,000 of that number are still imprisoned to this day, and the junta has killed more than 6,000 in its attempts to crack down on political and military opposition to its rule.
Little indicates that the junta is serious about allowing a robust democratic exercise to take place. The coup, in the first place, overturned the results of a democratic election that had taken place several months before.
Despite support from Russia and China, the Tatmadaw is suffering from a series of battlefield setbacks stretching back to October 2023, when a coalition of ethnoreligious minorities from around the country launched a coordinated offensive against key military strongholds. In the year since, the coalition has wrested control of several key border towns from the military and killed or captured thousands of government soldiers, including high-ranking officers.
In August 2024, the coalition captured the city of Lashio, a major regional hub for the Tatmadaw and home to its Northeastern Command. With this loss, the Tatmadaw is largely confined to the country’s center, surrounded by opposition forces to the west, north, and east.
Experts believe that Myanmar’s military is atrophying rapidly, with as few as 150,000 personnel remaining after the loss of tens of thousands of personnel through casualties or desertions since the 2021 coup. This number is significantly smaller than previous estimates of 300,000 to 400,000 and calls into question the junta’s ability to sustain its nationwide military campaign, especially after a series of high-profile losses in recent months.
In response to its shrinking ranks, the Myanmar government announced in February 2024 that it would begin a national conscription. According to an official announcement, the draft applies to all men aged 18 to 35 and all women aged 18 to 27 and can extend for up to five years.
Thousands of young people attempted to flee the country after the announcement. Still, many have been forced to join the military despite personal and moral objections to helping the Tatmadaw perpetuate the world’s longest ongoing civil war.
Burma contains many distinct ethnic and religious groups. Though a strong majority of the population is ethnic Burman, and an even greater percentage is Buddhist, the communities that make up the remainder are well-established, well-organized, and, for the most part, predate the formation of the modern state by centuries.
In many cases, Burma’s ethnic minorities have taken on a distinct religious identity as well. About 20% to 30% of ethnic Karen are Christians, while other groups — such as the Chin — are more than 90% Christian. Rakhine state contains a large Muslim Rohingya population against whom the junta continues to wage genocide. This overlap of ethnic and religious identity has created a volatile situation for non-Buddhists across the country.
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