In the end, the forces of moderation in German politics appear to have gotten what they hoped for to hold off a rising populist tide. But only by the thinnest of margins.
The winner of Sunday’s national elections was the center-right Christian Democratic Union with 29% of the vote. It looks as if it will be able to form what is sometimes known as a “grand coalition” with the center-left Social Democratic Party. These grand coalitions have been a hallmark of recent German politics and have given Germany a reasonable foundation of stability and strength.
That will be sorely needed.
Why We Wrote This
The winner of Sunday’s German elections will likely be able to form a centrist coalition to govern. But voters boosted parties on the partisan poles, suggesting their patience is wearing thin.
Germany has long been the central binding force of a unified Europe. With the United States increasingly seeing Europe as either irrelevant (in Ukraine) or as an adversary (with tariffs), Germany will be essential to reestablishing Europe’s unity, relevance, and influence.
Moreover, the German economy has been beset by problems ranging from high inflation to an acute lack of qualified workers. An influx of migrants, leading to a spate of high-profile violent attacks, has only added to a sense that the country is careening off course.
Any grand coalition will have its work cut out for it.
Yet the story of this election, really, is how close Germany came to a different outcome – within 0.03% of the final vote, to be precise. The unambiguous message sent by German voters was dissatisfaction with business as usual. Besides the CDU, all the major centrist parties essentially went into free fall. The biggest gains came from the parties at the partisan poles.
As expected, the right-wing Alternative for Germany (AfD) party finished second with 21% of the vote. Less expected, two parties – The Left and its socially conservative offshoot, BSW – also made large gains to end with nearly 14% of the vote combined. Crucially, BSW fell just short of the 5% threshold required to enter parliament. It finished with 4.97%.
Had BSW gotten 0.03% more of the votes, the entire math of building a coalition would have been thrown into confusion. A grand coalition would not have been enough, meaning the even further left Greens would likely have needed to be a part of the governing coalition – hardly an ideal recipe for strength and stability.
No alternative in the AfD?
These complications come from the CDU’s refusal to form a government with the AfD, maintaining the “firewall” aimed at keeping the right-wing party out of power. Many Germans see the AfD’s immigration policies as racist and fear that its brand of nationalism shares too many echoes of the Nazi past.
But there are also key ideological differences between the CDU and AfD, mostly notably over Ukraine and the role of Germany in Europe.
“Opinion polls suggest that [a CDU/AfD] coalition is not at all preferred by a majority of voters or by a majority of CDU supporters,” says Hartwig Pautz, a political scientist at the University of the West of Scotland, in an email interview. “Both parties are incompatible in terms of the majority of their policies and values.”
The head of the CDU and likely next chancellor, Friedrich Merz, has set a goal of having a government in place by Easter on April 20.
As a potential chancellor, Mr. Merz is something of an untested choice. His decision to use AfD support to pass a nonbinding motion about immigration late last month was roundly criticized, even by members of his own party. But he is seen as being a more forceful personality than the outgoing chancellor, Olaf Scholz.
“Given the challenges Germany faces, the need might be for someone who exudes some sort of confidence,” says Hope Harrison, a Germany expert at George Washington University. “Merz is much more that kind of person.”
That was apparent in a televised roundtable conversation Sunday night with all the major party leaders. At one point, the AfD’s candidate for chancellor, Alice Weidel, accused Mr. Merz of gambling Germany’s future by ignoring the AfD to ally with left-of-center parties. The “firewall” was weakening the country, she argued forcefully and repeatedly.
Mr. Merz gave no ground. Highlighting the AfD’s support for Russia, he said he would never work with a party that sided with Russian President Vladimir Putin. In Ukraine, he said, the values upon which Germany was founded are at stake.
Left unsaid, but no less clear, was the fact that those same values are at stake in the success of Germany’s next government. The forces of centrism would do well not to count on such a narrow escape again.
