This week, all eyes have been on talks that President Donald Trump portrays as a high-stakes diplomatic card game, with peace in Ukraine as the prize. Yet no matter how that drama ends, there is already one clear winner.
The owner of the card table.
Saudi Arabia, a country that is largely made up of desert, has fewer than 40 million people, and boasts a middling military with no nuclear arms, may be emerging as the 21st century’s most improbable superpower.
Why We Wrote This
Saudi Arabia’s role as host of Ukraine peace talks points to its growing international clout. That trend suits the United States now, but Riyadh’s extravagant ambitions could one day pose challenges to Washington.
For the brashly ambitious 39-year-old running the country – Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, or MBS – represents a political revival no less dramatic than Mr. Trump’s.
The latest sign of his burgeoning clout? The role that Saudi Arabia has played as host of the Americans’ successive meetings with Russian and Ukrainian negotiators.
MBS stands to benefit further from close ties with Mr. Trump, who has reportedly chosen Saudi Arabia for his first foreign trip since regaining the White House.
But the Saudi leader has been busy building relationships with other centers of power and influence in the past few years, too. They range from China, Russia, and India, to innovative artificial intelligence, high-tech developers, and international sports leagues.
While he will be keen to forge the closest possible ties with Mr. Trump, especially on military and security issues, their interests could diverge when it comes to the crown prince’s overtures to U.S. rivals and competitors.
How they navigate these differences could influence a number of issues, from peace in Ukraine to the future of Gaza – and even Mr. Trump’s effort to reshape U.S. relations with Russia and China.
That’s because unlike Ukraine’s president, whom Mr. Trump recently rebuked for not having “the cards” in peace talks, MBS does have cards.
Saudi Press Agency/AP/File
His ace lies beneath the Saudi desert: the largest oil reserves in the Middle East.
Saudi Arabia is the world’s top oil exporter. That gives the kingdom significant influence over customers, including China, which has become its leading trade partner.
Saudi oil also gives the crown prince sway over the global supply of crude and its price. That is a lever that he has pulled to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s advantage since the invasion of Ukraine. He has kept production down and world prices up, boosting the Kremlin’s profits from its own oil exports.
Saudi oil exports still bring in well over $200 billion a year, giving MBS virtually unlimited cash to spend on his dream of retooling Saudi Arabia as a major world power.
It is a complex vision. The unalloyed upside for a country where over half the population is under 30 years old has been his determination to modernize the kingdom. Hardline Muslim clerics and their religious police have been sidelined. Movie theaters have opened for the first time.
Some restrictions on women have been loosened. They are now allowed to drive, and are entering the workforce in greater numbers and at higher levels.
Still, there has been no loosening of political control. Overt criticism of Crown Prince Mohammed’s rule, or a call for greater liberalization, can still land you in jail.
Or worse.
In 2018, dissident Saudi journalist and Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi was murdered and dismembered. A CIA report concluded that MBS sanctioned that crime.
Yet despite credible allegations of continuing serious human rights violations, a leader denounced as a “pariah” after Mr. Khashoggi’s death is now widely wooed well beyond America’s borders.
He has drawn closer to China, and to Russia, as a fellow oil producer. He has been welcomed into the BRICS economic coalition of countries in the Global South.
And he is also a major player on two international policy fronts where his interests and Washington’s could clash.
The first is artificial intelligence and technology, a centerpiece of Crown Prince Mohammed’s vision of a post-oil economy.
He has earmarked billions of dollars to attract experts, researchers, and entrepreneurs in AI to visit, teach, invest, and set up shop in Saudi Arabia. U.S. officials are worried that this initiative could transform the kingdom into a sanctions-busting back door for China, as Beijing seeks top flight technology.
The second potential point of friction is the Middle East, where Saudi Arabia – as the wealthiest and most influential Arab Muslim country – would appear to be a critical part of any workable plan to rebuild Gaza.
Mr. Trump will rightly anticipate that an early visit to Saudi Arabia will be a meeting of friends, with wide scope for common ground. On security, there’s an obvious win-win: the prospect of major new purchases of U.S. arms, which the Saudis need, in return for billions of dollars.
But Gaza, where Donald Trump has envisaged an international tourist paradise, with no Palestinian residents, could prove a lot trickier.
That is especially true if Mr. Trump wants to build on his first administration’s main diplomatic achievement – the Abraham Accords between Israel and several Arab states – by bringing Saudi Arabia into the fold.
The U.S. president has indicated support for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s intention of hitting Hamas even harder, even suggesting the relocation of the entire Palestinian population to nearby Arab states.
That, MBS has made clear, is a nonstarter. And he can back up his position with muscle – his country’s oil wealth, technology initiatives, regional influence, and increasingly strong relations with other major powers.
MBS has cards to play.
