President Donald Trump’s rapid about-face on relations with Russia, Europe, and Ukraine has shocked foreign policy-makers around the world. And the Kremlin seems as surprised as everyone else.
Now, say Russian analysts, the midnight oil is likely burning in Russian President Vladimir Putin’s office as his team tries to figure out the best way to exploit the many opportunities that have opened up.
It’s been less than a month since a dramatic phone call between Mr. Trump and Mr. Putin led to high-level talks in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, and in Istanbul aimed at restoring normal ties after over a decade of escalating sanctions and scorched-earth diplomatic hostility.
Why We Wrote This
Moscow’s return from the diplomatic wilderness has been as impressive as it is sudden. But Russian President Vladimir Putin’s attempts to capitalize on it may not align with Donald Trump’s expectations.
Mr. Trump appears to have thrown a litany of unilateral concessions Moscow’s way, including the suggestion that Russia should be readmitted to the G7 club of Western democracies and a proposal to mutually slash arms budgets. There are also reports that Mr. Trump has requested Mr. Putin mediate U.S. nuclear negotiations with Iran, and that the United States and Russia have begun secret talks on reopening the Nord Stream pipeline that delivered Russian gas to Europe until it was destroyed by mysterious sabotage in 2022.
The biggest spotlight has been on Mr. Trump’s very public effort to broker a quick peace in Ukraine, which has entailed previously unthinkable U.S. deference to Moscow’s wishes. In a series of statements, Washington has ruled out NATO membership for Ukraine, publicly expressed doubt that Ukraine can take back its Russian-occupied territories, and called Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy a “dictator.” The White House has also insisted that Ukraine hold new presidential elections, and refused to field U.S. troops in Ukraine or backstop any peace plan that would require U.S. security guarantees.
In a fractious Oval Office meeting last Friday, Mr. Trump and Vice President JD Vance called Mr. Zelenskyy “ungrateful” and “disrespectful,” leading to at least a temporary rupture of relations and pause in U.S. arms shipments to Ukraine.
A whole new foreign policy world
The Russian media has covered each of these turns with gleeful amazement and more than a touch of schadenfreude. But foreign policy analysts seem more cautious.
“This is just a moment. It’s an extraordinary one, and it looks very good for Russia, but things can turn around very quickly,” says Sergei Strokan, an international affairs columnist with the business daily Kommersant.
The prospect of full normalization of relations with the U.S., even as Europe doubles down on its previous pro-Ukraine policies, suggests that the global order is becoming fragmented in ways that will prevent any future attempt to isolate Russia.
Mr. Strokan says the focus of Russian diplomacy will be to create solid, lasting results that will improve Russia’s long-term position. “For years we’ve been complaining that we’re facing unprecedented pressure from the ‘collective West,’ and now, suddenly, there is no solid front against us anymore,” he says.
The Russian foreign policy establishment always speculated that Europe would be most likely to eventually seek rapprochement with Moscow, while U.S. hostility to Russia was thought to be hard-wired. “Now we have to revise our whole foreign policy outlook,” Mr. Strokan says. “It’s a huge task, which most of our foreign policy experts are not ready for, to spell out the potentials of this unexpected new situation. And it’s very dynamic.”
The next challenge will be to hold a productive summit between Russian and U.S. leaders. Mr. Trump has said he’s sure Mr. Putin is ready for peace, so as soon as the U.S. president has persuaded Mr. Zelenskyy to accept his peace plan, a summit should be on the horizon.
Not much is known about Mr. Trump’s plan, but it seems to involve an immediate ceasefire, a big U.S. stake in Ukrainian reconstruction sealed by a “minerals deal” with Ukraine, and a long-term peace settlement whose security guarantees would be provided by Europe, not by the U.S.
Jens Buttner/Reuters/File
No peace deal in the offing?
Russian experts say there is, as yet, a yawning gap between what Mr. Trump appears to want, and the kind of peace deal that Mr. Putin would be prepared to accept.
Before a meeting, “We need to make sure that the U.S. understands our position. We need a deal that addresses our conditions,” says Anton Grishanov, head researcher at the Russian Foreign Ministry’s Diplomatic Academy. “Ukraine may not be an existential matter for the U.S., but it is for Russia. And it’s not only about Ukraine, but a much wider range of issues.”
Russia’s basic conditions for a peace settlement, as spelled out in various statements by Mr. Putin and other leaders, include guarantees of Ukrainian neutrality, substantial demilitarization of Ukraine, and language and religious rights for Ukraine’s Russian speakers. Russia also demands that Ukraine cede to it four territories (plus Crimea, which was annexed in 2014): Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia. Some experts say Russia will also insist on fresh presidential elections in Ukraine, to ensure the legitimacy of whoever signs a final peace deal.
Analysts say the Kremlin will likely insist that the summit agenda be thoroughly prepared through intensive meetings of working groups and high level dialogue, so that there will be no surprises when the two leaders finally meet.
One expert, who asked not to be attributed in order to comment more freely about Mr. Putin, quipped that the Russian president would never put himself into the sort of unscripted or spontaneous position – much less with TV cameras rolling – that Mr. Zelenskyy did in the White House last week.
The Kremlin seems unlikely to accommodate Mr. Trump’s hope for an immediate ceasefire.
“Why should we agree to a ceasefire when we are winning?” says Alexey Mukhin, director of the independent consultancy Center for Political Information in Moscow. “If Ukraine doesn’t want to continue fighting, they should capitulate.”
A final peace settlement should meet Russia’s basic conditions, he adds.
“If Trump and Putin can settle this to Russia’s satisfaction, that would be good. If not, Russia will continue fighting. It’s that simple.”
